The Three-Way Fight That Will Shape Formula 1's 2025 Finale

The stage is set. The 2025 Formula One season has already coughed up miracles only Hollywood scriptwriters could dare and fumbles only this circus could invent. Now, as we stand a week away from the final Grand Prix of the year, the three-way fight for the World Drivers' Championship between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri stands at a difference of a mere 12 and 16 points respectively.

To say that Abu Dhabi will be interesting is an understatement.

How It Landed Here

In theory, the Qatar Grand Prix should have been where Norris, the championship leader, sealed the road to his first WDC title. Or, it could have been a clean weekend for his teammate Piastri, after he converted a sprint pole to a win and took the pole for the race at Lusail. Except that real life defies theories every now and then, and the McLaren drivers learned this first-hand with the disastrous strategy the team chose to follow yesterday.

After a safety car was called at lap 7 to recover Nico Hülkenberg's Sauber, most teams chose to take advantage of the situation and complete the first of their two mandatory pit stops. To avoid double stacking, McLaren chose to stay on track, betting on their cars to be sufficiently faster than Verstappen's Red Bull to take a comfortable pit stop later. That, however, did not come to pass, and by the time the British team made their last pit stop at lap 43, Verstappen was way ahead, winning the race with a lead of almost 8 seconds, while Piastri and Norris came second and fourth, respectively.

Max Verstappen won the Qatar Grand PrixFormula 1

Currently, Norris stands at 408 points, followed by Verstappen at 396. Piastri is a close third at 392. Statistically, Norris still has the highest probability of winning. Meanwhile, Piastri, who led the championship in the first wing of the season with consistent victories and podium finishes leading to the summer break, is back to outperforming him ever since the double disqualification at Las Vegas.

Now, if this season has proved anything, it’s that numbers don’t guarantee a thing. In just seven races over three months, Verstappen has hacked a ridiculous 104-point deficit down to a genuine title shot. The odds may not favour him, but the door is cracked open just wide enough. If this weekend, the Championship Trophy goes Dutch, it would be one of the most era-defining comebacks of his era.

What would it take for each contender to win

Lando Norris enters Abu Dhabi with the simplest path to the title: finish on the podium. Even if he doesn’t win, a top-three finish locks it down. He can also afford a victory by Piastri as long as he brings the car home in fifth or better. The only real danger is letting Verstappen claw back more than 12 points, or Piastri more than 16.

For Piastri, the equation is harsher. He needs to win with Norris slipping to sixth or lower. A second-place finish keeps his hopes alive only if Norris fades to tenth at best and Verstappen stays off the podium entirely.

Meanwhile, winning would give Verstappen the crown only if Norris misses the podium. Second place works only with Norris down in eighth and Piastri failing to win. Even a third-place finish keeps him in play, but only if Norris drops to ninth or lower and Piastri again doesn’t take the victory.

This is just the math based on current points; on race day, there will be many more factors at play. Despite the lead, Norris will be up against a teammate who has proved time and again that he is just as good as him (and I daresay even better). Not to forget, Piastri might have to choose between prioritising his own championship versus focusing on the team should McLaren decide to switch the cars when he is leading the race.